Navigate This Week’s Top Economic Reports With Expert Insights
As we approach the end of October and enter the first week of November, several key economic events are scheduled that may significantly impact the global financial markets. This week’s calendar is packed with vital indicators, from GDP growth reports to employment data. All event times listed below are in GMT+8.
Monday, October 28, 2024
- Holiday: New Zealand – Labor Day
The New Zealand financial markets will be closed in observance of Labor Day.
Tuesday, October 29, 2024
- USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. is a crucial economic indicator, offering insight into economic conditions. Traders will be watching for any significant changes in consumer outlook that could hint at future spending behavior. - USD – JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
This metric provides information on job vacancies in the U.S. economy, serving as a valuable indicator of labor market strength.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024
- EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
As Europe’s largest economy, Germany’s GDP figures are critical for assessing the region’s overall economic health. The Q3 data will shed light on Germany’s performance amid ongoing global economic pressures. - GBP – Autumn Forecast Statement
The UK’s financial forecast statement could set the tone for fiscal and economic policy. Market participants will look for government projections on growth, inflation, and borrowing. - USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
A precursor to the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, this data gives early indications of job growth and may influence market sentiment ahead of the official release. - USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
The U.S. GDP report is a key indicator of economic activity. A higher-than-expected reading could support a stronger dollar, while a lower reading may signal economic slowdown. - EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Oct)
Germany’s inflation rate will be closely monitored, as rising consumer prices can prompt central bank action. - USD – Crude Oil Inventories
Oil traders will be particularly focused on inventory data, as it affects global oil prices. A large build or draw in stock levels could shift crude prices and impact related markets.
Thursday, October 31, 2024
- CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
China’s PMI data will provide valuable insight into the health of the manufacturing sector, which plays a significant role in the global supply chain. - JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision is a pivotal event for traders, as any changes in policy could have widespread impacts on currency and bond markets. - EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct)
Eurozone inflation data will be under scrutiny as markets assess the effectiveness of monetary policy and the region’s economic resilience. - USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
A key inflation gauge, the Core PCE Index is closely watched by the Federal Reserve. It is used as a primary measure for determining inflation trends in the U.S. - USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
This monthly reading provides additional insights into price pressures in the U.S. economy. - USD – Initial Jobless Claims
The jobless claims report will offer a fresh perspective on the health of the U.S. labor market, with implications for consumer spending and overall economic momentum. - USD – Chicago PMI (Oct)
This regional PMI is a good indicator of overall U.S. economic health and can signal changes in business conditions.
Friday, November 1, 2024
- USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)
Rising wages could indicate inflationary pressures, and this data point is a key component for evaluating the overall health of the labor market. - USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
As the most anticipated data release of the week, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls will provide a comprehensive overview of job growth, influencing both currency markets and broader economic forecasts. - USD – Unemployment Rate (Oct)
The unemployment rate complements the payroll data, providing further insights into labor market conditions. - USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
The ISM Manufacturing Index measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector. A higher reading signals expansion, while a lower reading could point to contraction. - USD – ISM Manufacturing Prices (Oct)
This report highlights price trends within the manufacturing industry, offering clues about inflationary pressures. - USD – S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Similar to the ISM report, the S&P Global PMI is another important measure of U.S. manufacturing sector performance.
Trading Tips for the Week:
- Focus on U.S. Data for Dollar Strength:
With several critical U.S. reports lined up, including GDP (Oct 30), Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov 1), and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov 1), expect significant volatility in USD pairs. Positive GDP and payroll numbers could strengthen the dollar, while weaker data might prompt a pullback. Traders should closely monitor these reports for direction. - Watch European Data for Euro Movements:
The release of Germany’s Q3 GDP (Oct 30) and Eurozone CPI (Oct 31) will be key for EUR/USD traders. Poor economic performance in Germany or rising inflation in the Eurozone could lead to increased speculation about ECB policy shifts, influencing euro volatility. - Oil Traders—Crude Inventories in Focus:
The weekly crude oil inventories report (Oct 30) will be pivotal for oil prices. A surprise build could put downward pressure on oil prices, while a draw could support bullish sentiment. Be prepared for sharp movements in energy markets. - BoJ Interest Rate Decision—JPY in the Spotlight:
Traders should pay close attention to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision (Oct 31). Given the persistent low-interest-rate environment, any unexpected policy changes could have a significant impact on JPY pairs. - China PMI for Broader Market Sentiment:
China’s Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) will offer insights into global supply chain health and economic growth. A weaker PMI could signal challenges for global growth, potentially affecting commodity currencies like AUD and NZD. - Nonfarm Payrolls—Prepare for Big Moves:
The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report (Nov 1) is often a high-volatility event. Strong job growth could lead to dollar strength, while weak figures may spark concerns about the Fed’s monetary policy path. Be ready for potential price swings in major currency pairs and U.S. indices.
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