Stay Ahead: Top Economic Data to Monitor This Week
As we dive into the third week of December, several critical economic reports and central bank decisions are scheduled to make an impact on global markets. From US manufacturing data to inflation readings in the UK and Eurozone, here’s a breakdown of the events that traders should be focused on this week, with potential market-moving implications for major currencies, commodities, and stocks.
Monday, December 16
- 22:45：USD S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Impact: The US Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector. A higher-than-expected print could be bullish for the USD as it signals stronger economic conditions in the US, while a weaker report might spark concerns over a slowdown. - 22:45: USD S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)
- Impact: Similar to the manufacturing PMI, this services PMI data provides insights into the largest segment of the US economy. A strong services PMI could boost confidence in the US economy, supporting the USD. Traders will be closely watching for any signs of contraction or expansion in this vital sector.
Tuesday, December 17
- 21:30: USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
- Impact: Core Retail Sales, excluding volatile food and energy items, give traders a clearer picture of consumer spending trends in the US. A stronger-than-expected figure could signal healthy consumer demand, potentially boosting the USD.
- 21:30: USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
- Impact: This broader measure of retail activity includes all goods, providing insight into consumer behavior. If retail sales come in stronger than anticipated, it could point to a resilient economy, likely pushing the USD higher. Conversely, weak retail data could drag the USD lower.
Wednesday, December 18
- 15:00: GBP CPI (YoY) (Nov)
Impact: The UK’s annual CPI inflation data will be crucial for traders monitoring inflationary trends in the UK. A higher-than-expected CPI could force the Bank of England (BoE) to take more aggressive action on interest rates, supporting the GBP.
18:00: EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)
Impact: Eurozone inflation data will influence expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB). A stronger CPI could suggest inflationary pressures are rising in the region, which may lead to speculation about tighter ECB policy, potentially driving the EUR higher.
23:30: USD Crude Oil Inventories
Impact: Crude oil inventories provide insights into supply-demand dynamics. A larger-than-expected draw in inventories could signal a rise in demand for oil, potentially pushing oil prices and oil-related currencies (like CAD) higher. Conversely, a build in inventories could weigh on oil prices, leading to CAD weakness.
Thursday, December 19
- 03:00: USD FOMC Economic Projections
Impact: The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) economic projections provide a roadmap for future Fed policy. A more hawkish outlook could lead to USD strength, as traders price in potential rate hikes in 2025.
03:00: USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
Impact: The Fed’s decision on interest rates will be a major market mover. If the Fed raises rates or signals a continued hawkish stance, the USD could see substantial gains. On the other hand, any dovish tone could weaken the USD.
03:30: USD FOMC Press Conference
Impact: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during the press conference will provide additional clarity on the Fed’s outlook for inflation and growth. Strong language about inflation control could bolster the USD.
20:00: GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
Impact: The Bank of England’s rate decision will be key for the GBP. A rate hike could support the GBP as it signals confidence in the UK economy. A dovish surprise, however, could see the GBP weakening as traders adjust their expectations for future policy.
21:30: USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
Impact: US GDP data is a crucial indicator of the health of the world’s largest economy. A strong GDP reading could fuel optimism about US economic growth, likely pushing the USD higher.
21:30: USD Initial Jobless Claims
Impact: Jobless claims are a timely indicator of the US labor market. A decrease in claims suggests a tightening job market, which could support the USD if the data comes in better than expected.
21:30: USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)
Impact: This regional manufacturing index provides insights into the broader economic environment. A strong print could push the USD higher, signaling that the economy is in good shape.
Friday, December 20
- 21:30: USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov)
Impact: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. A stronger-than-expected result could lead traders to price in more aggressive Fed tightening, providing a boost to the USD.
21:30: USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
Impact: The year-over-year reading of the Core PCE offers a long-term perspective on inflation. A significant increase could reinforce concerns about rising prices, driving further strength in the USD as the market anticipates more rate hikes from the Fed.
Trading Tips
- Monitor Retail Sales Data (USD): Strong retail sales data could signal a healthy US economy, favoring the USD. Look for long opportunities in USD pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD if the data comes in positive.
- Keep an Eye on Inflation Reports (GBP & EUR): UK and Eurozone CPI reports will be pivotal for GBP and EUR. A surprise rise in inflation could prompt central bank action, potentially strengthening GBP and EUR.
- FOMC & Fed Decision (USD): A hawkish Fed could propel the USD higher. Stay ready for volatility following the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference.
- BoE Rate Decision (GBP): A rate hike from the Bank of England could support GBP, making it a potential buy opportunity against USD or EUR.
- Crude Oil Inventories & CAD: Watch oil inventories closely—lower inventories may strengthen the CAD, while an inventory build could weaken it.
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